A mere 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
