Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
